This group did not prepare for the future.
Just a few things for us all to ponder, especially the
younger ones amongst us. Did you think back in 1998 that three years later you
would never take pictures on film again? In 1998 Kodak had 170,000 employees
and sold 85 percent of the photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years their
business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will
happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years and most people won't see it
coming.
Yet digital cameras were invented in
1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as
with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before
it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will
now happen again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric
cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th
Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most
traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. Uber is just a software tool,
they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb
is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any
properties. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the
world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already
don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson you can get legal advice (so far for
more or less basic stuff) within seconds. With 90 percent accuracy compared
with 70 percent accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop
immediately. There will be 90 percent less lawyers in the future. Only
specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, which
is four times more accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern
recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030
computers will become more intelligent than humans. (NEVER says Albert)
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first
self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020 the complete industry
will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore. You will call
a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your
destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance
and can be productive while being driven. Our kids will never need to get a
driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because
we will need 90-95 percent less cars for that. We can transform former parking
spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car
accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 k),
with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10
million km). That will save a million lives each year. Most car companies will
probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary
approach and just build a better car, while tech companies like Tesla, Apple,
Google will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and
Audi are completely terrified of Tesla. Insurance companies will have massive
trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper.
Their car insurance business model will disappear. Real estate will change.
Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to
live in a more beautiful neighborhood. Electric cars will become mainstream
about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on
electricity.
Electricity will become incredibly
cheap and clean. Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30
years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. Last year, more solar energy
was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to
limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations,
but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy. With cheap
electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only
needs 2k Wh per cubic meter at 0.25 cents. We don't have scarce water in most
places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if
anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be
announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device
(called the " Tricorder " from Star Trek) that works with your phone,
which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you simply breathe into it.
It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will
be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world
class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye medical establishments.
3 D printing: The price of the
cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same
time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started
3D printing shoes. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the
large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past. At the end of this
year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D
scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China they have already 3D printed
and built a complete six-story office building. By 2027 10 percent of
everything that's being produced will be 3D printed. Business Opportunities: If
you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself, "In the
future, do I think we will have that?" If the answer is yes, how can you make
that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And
any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.
Work: 70-80 percent of jobs will
disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not
clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time. This will require
a rethink on wealth distribution. Agriculture: There will be a $100
agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then
become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields. Aeroponics:
Will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available
and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30 percent of
all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space
anymore.
The times they are a changing! Are you preparing for them spiritually, economically, educationally, ETC?
John Schwendler is a retired AF NCO
and teacher
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